The aftermath of the 12-day war with Iran looks mixed more than two weeks later. Iran’s nuclear program was badly damaged and likely set back for years.
But the Ayatollah’s government isn’t admitting defeat and shows no signs of dropping its revolutionary or nuclear designs. That puts into focus the next policy question for the U.S.: Will Trump’s cease-fire give way to diplomacy that deepens the achievements of the war, or will it put those achievements at risk?
Iran is still talking tough and rejecting Trump’s demands, even after bailing out of the fight with Israel and failing to respond in any serious way to the U.S. strikes. In a video message released several days after the U.S. bombing, a frail-looking Ayatollah Ali Khamenei claimed the U.S. had to intervene to rescue Israel, and that Iran had “dealt America a slap in the face.â€
Trump didn’t take kindly to the Ayatollah’s revisionist history, which he corrected on Truth Social. The president added that “Iran has to get back into the World Order flow, or things will only get worse for them.â€
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But Iran has shown no sign it will surrender the remains of its enrichment program. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said after the war, “Our people have endured sanctions for this, and a war was imposed on our nation over this issue. No one in Iran will abandon this technology.â€
More ominously, Iran has driven out United Nations weapons inspectors, who left the country last week. It may drop out of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. This will make it impossible for inspectors to make a ground-level estimate of the damage done and track or collect any nuclear material that remains.
Iran isn’t hankering for normal relations with the West, either. Senior regime clerics have called for Trump’s execution. Iran’s regime proclaims death to America and Israel, and it wages its forever war accordingly. Meanwhile, evidence is building that Tehran has escalated its terror campaign at home, with arrests and executions of opponents and minorities.
What’s the U.S. policy to grapple with all of this? White House envoy Steve Witkoff said a meeting with Araghchi will take place soon. Iran’s Foreign Minister has been stalling, but a senior White House official tells us Iran wants sanctions relief as well as U.S. help with a civilian nuclear program.
“We have a very big ask†in return, the U.S. official says. It starts with removing whatever nuclear material and enrichment infrastructure remains, and continues with hard limits on Iran’s missile program and an end to its support for regional terrorism. The return of inspectors and on-demand searches is essential.
To extract concessions, Witkoff will need the full pressure arsenal. That should include public and other support for the Iranian people. Especially helpful would be so-called snap-back U.N. sanctions that were part of the 2015 nuclear deal. These would restore international bans on Iranian enrichment and nuclear-capable missiles. They’d also bar other states from helping Iran on those fronts.
The U.S. will also have to enforce its sanctions against Iran’s oil exports. Iran’s oil output is now at a seven-year high, per U.S. Energy Department data. That’s the regime’s main source of financing. Will it be put in danger?
The successful Israel-U.S. military operation has the regime more vulnerable than at any time since the Islamic revolution. Now is the moment to capitalize for a safer Middle East.
